There is so much to learn before the Presidential Primary on March 5, 2024!
I read a recent article about how the Mass GOP Chairwoman, Amy Carnevale, is looking to change the way delegate votes will be allocated in the 2024 Republican State Primary, which made me realize that I don’t completely understand what delegates are, how they are chosen, or precisely what they do, let alone how their votes are allocated. So, I figured I’d better do a little research to find out for sure, and then maybe I’d be able to discern how this potential change might affect Massachusetts voters in the 2024 Presidential Election.
What are delegates?
“In the American presidential nominee selection process, delegates are individuals who represent the political interests of a group of people in their state at the Democratic National Convention (DNC) and the Republican National Convention (RNC). They are often political activists, local politicians, national party committee members, or early supporters of a particular candidate. Delegates support one specific candidate within their given party, with the aim of that candidate becoming the official party candidate for an upcoming presidential election.
Delegates are chosen most often through state primaries but sometimes through state caucuses. In general, a Democratic candidate must win at least 2,375 out of 4,750 delegates to become the party’s official candidate for the general election, while a Republican candidate must secure 1,277 out of 2,552 delegates to do the same.”[i]
How are delegates chosen in Massachusetts?
According to Massachusetts General Law[ii], the state political parties may choose delegates using any method adopted by state committee bylaws provided that:
- Delegates reflect the will of the voters in the Presidential Primary
- The state committee rules are filed by October 1 of the year preceding the general election
- The delegates:
- Are not less than two from each Congressional District
- The number of “at-large”[iii] delegates is fixed by the state committee
- The names and numbers of the delegates must be filed with the Secretary of the Commonwealth by the first Tuesday in January of the general election year
How are Republican delegates chosen in Massachusetts?
The Massachusetts Republican Party’s system for selecting delegates for the Republican National Convention has undergone changes from cycle to cycle. Reviewing and potentially altering the delegate selection rules occurs at the State Committee Meeting held in the year before the Presidential Election.
The number of delegates is awarded to each state by the National Republican Party. The number of “at-large” delegates may vary by year based on popular vote counts in previous elections. “Bonus” delegates are awarded to states with a robust Republican contingency at the state and federal levels. The number of district delegates remains static (unless a census count changes the number of Representatives in the U.S. Congress). In the 2020 Presidential Primary, Massachusetts was allocated 41 delegates and 38 alternate delegates as follows:
“(a) eleven (11) delegates and eleven (11) alternate delegates at-large; (b) three (3) district delegates and three (3) alternate district delegates for each Massachusetts Congressman in the U.S. House of Representatives based districts existing after the 2010 reapportionment; and (c) three (3) automatic delegates for the State Chair, National Committeeman, and National Committeewoman”[iv]
Choosing the individuals to fill the delegate slots used to be done at the Congressional District Caucus level, where eligible party members would put their names into the nomination and hopefully win enough votes to be elected to represent the state at the National Convention. The system was changed for the 2020 Presidential Primary, purportedly to avoid the “problematic” caucus/convention process.[v]
Instead of district-level elections, the 27 district delegates were chosen:
- 9 by the State Party Chair
- 9 by the State Committee
- 9 by qualifying presidential candidates
- The qualifying presidential candidates chose the 11 at-large delegates
This gave great control to the Executives of the State Committee over who would become a delegate.
The delegate-selecting rules for the 2024 Presidential Primary have not been published yet. However, Massachusetts will have 40 delegates at the Republican National Convention.[vi]
How are Republican delegates (votes) allocated in Massachusetts?
This question is spurred by the article mentioned at the top of this column. Delegates represent the “votes” (Republican or Democrat) cast in the State Primary. They are charged with representing those votes at the respective national conventions to elect the nominee who will represent their party in the Presidential Election. Each state party has different rules for allocating delegates (votes), which can change with each Presidential Election cycle.
For the 2016 Republican National Convention, Massachusetts delegates were allocated proportionally by popular vote, with a 5% minimum threshold required to receive any delegates. This resulted in 4 candidates being represented by Massachusetts at the convention (Trump, Kasich, Rubio, and Cruz).[vii] See graphic below:
The rules were changed for the 2020 election by raising the minimum threshold to 20% and introducing a winner-take-all trigger if a candidate reached a majority (>50%) vote. The allocation was still technically proportional because if a candidate received a significant portion (say 49%) but didn’t trigger the majority, a runner-up candidate would be allocated delegates, even if he received less than 20% of the vote. [see footnote vi]
The potential rule change for 2024 proposed by Carnevale would most likely revert to a proportional method, with a 5% minimum but no winner-take-all threshold, regardless of percentage. This means that even if a candidate receives a majority of the vote (51-95%), the runner-up would receive at least one delegate. All delegates are “bound” for the first round of voting, meaning they must vote according to their allocation, but may change their vote to a different candidate in subsequent voting rounds.
How are Democrat delegates chosen in Massachusetts?
The Democratic National Committee awards the number of delegates like this:
“One Delegate shall be allocated to each ward or town and the remainder on the basis of a formula giving equal weight to Democratic Party registration in accordance with the Charter and to the average vote for Democratic candidates in the last general elections for the offices of Governor and President; provided that the total number of Delegates elected shall be no more than those elected in 2006. Provided however that town and ward committee Chairs shall be ex-officio delegates who shall not be included in the total number of delegates allocated for the caucus. The percentage of persons chosen as Affirmative Action/Minority Add-Ons shall be no less than the percentage so chosen in 2006.”[viii]
Massachusetts Democrats will have 116 delegates for the 2024 Democratic National Convention. Compared to the RNC rules for choosing delegates, the Democratic Party rules are much more involved. Multiple pages of selection rules based on “marginalized” communities require emphasis on equity and diversity rather than a strict following of voters’ choices.
Although the Democratic Party in Massachusetts has maintained the local/caucus approach to electing delegates to the National Convention, the rigid intersectional representation requirements seem to hem in any real sense of free and open choice.
How are Democrat delegates (votes) allocated in Massachusetts?
Delegates are awarded to candidates who reach a 15% threshold of the total vote count and are then allotted proportionally according to a percentage of the vote count. This seems to have been the same method used for many election cycles. The Democrats don’t fiddle with the percentages; they like the appearance of a “truly democratic” vote. However, they control the process through different categories of electors: [see footnote vi]
- PLEOs = Party Leaders and Elected Officials.
- Unpledged PLEOs = Superdelegates.
- District + at-large delegates = Base delegates.
- Base delegates + Pledged PLEOs are the only delegates chosen through a Democratic presidential Primary or Caucus/Convention procedure and, thus, allocated to presidential contenders.
- All Unpledged delegates (Unpledged PLEOs) are automatically uncommitted and are held aside rather than allocated to presidential contenders through a Primary or Caucus/Convention.
Conclusion
After reading the delegate selection and allocation rules for both political parties, I see many differences in procedures that reflect the generally stated philosophies of each. However, both parties use the rules process to manipulate the outcome of delegate selection and allocation according to the current political climate. Party leaders change the rules to achieve a particular outcome or, at the very least, as a last-ditch attempt to prevent an inevitable outcome.
Even if the Massachusetts Republican Party changes the delegate allocation process to a proportional one, I don’t think it will drastically alter the outcome. Carnevale’s attempt to strip multiple delegates away from Donald Trump will fail because Massachusetts voters prefer Trump above all other Republican candidates. The only possible hiccup which could derail a Trump primary victory is that Massachusetts is an open primary state. Enough Democrats would have to attempt sabotage of the Republican Primary by sacrificing their Democrat Primary vote to cast a ballot against Trump. However, I think this is an unlikely scenario given that RFK Jr. is challenging Biden, which will force Democrats to vote in their own primary.
What can we do to turn the country around? What can we do to show the RINOs who control the Mass GOP that they do not represent the people of this state?
VOTE TRUMP on MARCH 5, 2024.
by Jana K.
Sources:
[i] Understanding US delegates: 4 types of delegates – 2023. MasterClass. (n.d.). https://www.masterclass.com/articles/what-is-a-delegate
[ii] Section 70B. General Law – Part I, Title VIII, Chapter 53, Section 70B. (n.d.). https://malegislature.gov/Laws/GeneralLaws/PartI/TitleVIII/Chapter53/Section70B
[iii] At large is a description for members of a governing body who are elected or appointed to represent a whole membership or population, rather than a subset. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/At-large)
[iv] Massachusetts Republican State Committee. (2019, April 30). MASSACHUSETTS REPUBLICAN PARTY PLAN FOR SELECTION OF DELEGATES TO THE 2020 REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION IN CHARLOTTE, NC. Woburn; Mass GOP.
[v] Putnam, J. (2019, May 7). Massachusetts GOP rules change adds an element of winner-take-all to 2020 delegate allocation. Frontloading HQ. https://www.frontloadinghq.com/2019/05/massachusetts-gop-rules-change-adds.html
[vi] Massachusetts Republican delegation 2024. (n.d.). https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P24/MA-R
[vii] Massachusetts Republican Party. (2015, September 16). MASSACHUSETTS REPUBLICAN PARTY PLAN FOR THE SELECTION OF DELEGATES TO THE CLEVELAND, OH NATIONAL CONVENTION. Woburn.
Accessed through: https://web.archive.org/web/20160718233330/http://www.massgop.com:80/delegate
[viii] Google. (2023, April 21). 2023 preliminary call to convention. Google Docs. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1GYoF0JWUm1StdT_1SlJMrovamvHuuJPPNoWVNPGS9CA/edit
accessed through: https://massdems.org/massdems-convention/
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